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Published: 25 June 2025,02:14
Chart The Market
AUDUSD, H4:
AUD/USD rebounded sharply in recent sessions after violating the ascending trendline support, staging a recovery off the 0.6363 low to retest resistance near 0.6485. The pair had previously broken below both trendline and horizontal support at 0.6455, but a strong bullish rejection near the 0.6363 floor has triggered a corrective rebound. Price action is now approaching a congestion zone between 0.6485 and 0.6526, where prior rejection candles suggest overhead pressure may persist.
Momentum indicators are improving but still warrant caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back above the 50 threshold, printing 52, signaling a short-term shift toward bullish momentum—yet remains just marginally above neutral. The MACD histogram has flipped into positive territory, and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, offering early confirmation of bullish momentum. However, the crossover is shallow and may lack conviction unless follow-through buying sustains.
From a structural standpoint, AUD/USD must clear 0.6485 decisively to resume upward progression. A successful break above this level opens the door toward retesting 0.6526 and potentially resuming the broader uptrend. Conversely, failure to breach this zone would confirm a bearish retest, increasing the likelihood of renewed pressure toward 0.6410 and possibly back to 0.6363.
Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6526
Support Levels: 0.6455, 0.6410
USDJPY, H4
USD/JPY has pulled back from recent highs near 147.60, sliding nearly 200 pips to trade just below the 146.20 resistance-turned-support level, as momentum begins to wane following a sharp upside breakout. This correction comes after the pair decisively breached a long-standing descending trendline, but the follow-through rally appears to have stalled near the 148.10 resistance zone.
Momentum indicators reflect a cooling bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from overbought levels, currently printing 48—indicating a retreat back into neutral territory. Meanwhile, the MACD shows early signs of a bearish crossover, with the MACD line slipping below the signal line and histogram bars turning negative. This momentum shift could foreshadow further downside pressure unless buyers re-emerge near key support zones.
From a structural standpoint, 145.10 and 144.30 represent the next immediate support levels. A sustained break below these could expose the lower threshold at 142.65. On the upside, reclaiming 146.20 would be critical to invalidate near-term bearish risks and re-establish bullish control toward a retest of 148.10.
Resistance Levels: 146.20, 148.10
Support Levels: 145.10, 144.30
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